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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$43K
Liquidity
$193K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 11%, $3.7K in 24h volume, and $8.4K in liquidity.
Probability
11%
24h Volume
$3.7K
Liquidity
$8.4K
This market asks whether the CME Active Month gold futures contract, known by the ticker GC, will settle below $3,800 on the final trading day of June 2026. Gold futures are closely watched because they reflect the market’s official end-of-day price for a major precious metal benchmark, and this contract can react quickly to inflation expectations, Federal Reserve signals, the dollar, and broader risk sentiment.
Resolution depends on the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the last trading day of June 2026, not on intraday trading levels or the last trade. The key threshold is whether that official settlement prints at less than $3,800; if the reported value lands exactly on a boundary between brackets, the higher bracket wins. The market also notes that if June’s final session is shortened or has no settlement for that day, the most recent published Active Month settlement from June will be used instead.
Gold can move meaningfully over a single month, so there is real uncertainty around where the CME settlement will land by the end of June. Traders and readers may care because this threshold sits near a psychologically important round number, and the market is effectively pricing whether gold can stay under or push through that level by month-end. The current order book shows a wide tilt toward No, but the Yes side is still trading and the contract has seen meaningful volume, so the question is not treated as a lock.
The price can move if gold rallies or sells off sharply into month-end, especially after Federal Reserve announcements, U.S. inflation data, labor-market releases, or major shifts in the dollar and Treasury yields. Because the resolution uses CME’s official settlement for the Active Month, changes around the contract roll matter too: the Active Month switches on CME’s First Position Date, so the relevant June contract may change during the month. Late-month volatility in futures trading, especially around the final settlement session, is what matters most for this market.
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24h Vol
$43K
Liquidity
$193K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 11% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should verify which CME contract is the Active Month on the relevant June trading date, since the market resolves only from that contract’s official settlement. The source of truth is the CME-published settlement price, not news headlines, spot-gold quotes, or intraday charts, and the final trading day may be shortened without changing the resolution rule. It is also worth checking whether CME publishes a settlement on the shortened session; if it does not, the market falls back to the most recent June Active Month settlement.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 11%, $3.7K in 24h volume, and $8.4K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
11%
No
89%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 11%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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