politics
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
+0.1%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
24h Vol
$244.5K
Liquidity
$620.7K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketWorld
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Iran Nuke before 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 8%, $18.1K in 24h volume, and $94.5K in liquidity.
Probability
8%
24h Volume
$18.1K
Liquidity
$94.5K
This market asks whether Iran will be officially confirmed to possess a nuclear weapon by the end of 2026. It is tied to a high-stakes geopolitical question that matters because any public confirmation would mark a major shift in nuclear proliferation, regional security, and international diplomacy.
The title is asking about Iran specifically, and the resolution rule sets a very concrete standard: the answer is "Yes" only if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran’s own government, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The deadline matters because anything confirmed after that cutoff does not count, even if the underlying development happened earlier. In other words, the market is not about suspected capability, enrichment progress, or weapons-related concern alone; it is about an official confirmation of an actual nuclear weapon before the deadline.
Iran has long been at the center of global concern over nuclear proliferation, sanctions, inspections, and regional conflict. That leaves room for genuine uncertainty about whether any official confirmation of a nuclear weapon would emerge within the specified time window, especially because public claims, agency findings, and state statements can differ sharply. The market is pricing disagreement over both the substance of Iran’s nuclear status and the narrow evidence standard required for resolution.
The price would be most directly affected by formal statements from Iran, findings or language from international nuclear oversight bodies, or reporting from widely trusted global news organizations that clearly says Iran possesses a nuclear weapon. Diplomatic announcements, inspection-related disclosures, sanctions-linked negotiations, or a public shift in official terminology around weapon possession could all move expectations if they make a confirmation seem more or less likely before the cutoff. Because the rules require an official confirmation, even dramatic tension or suspected capability may not move the market much unless it changes the odds of a qualifying public statement.
Related markets
+0.1%
24h Vol
$244.5K
Liquidity
$620.7K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 8% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, readers should check the exact wording in any agency reports, government announcements, or major news coverage, since the rule depends on official confirmation rather than inference. The important cutoff is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and the market uses that deadline even though the end date is displayed in UTC on the page. The main ambiguity risk is whether a source says Iran has the ability to build a weapon, has advanced nuclear materials, or is believed to be close to a bomb; those statements are not the same as confirming possession of a nuclear weapon, so the resolution source and wording matter a great deal.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Iran Nuke before 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 8%, $18.1K in 24h volume, and $94.5K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
8.4%
No
91.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 8%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
--
24h Vol
$93.7K
Liquidity
$359.8K
Spread
0%
4/30/2027
View market
-0.6%
24h Vol
$289.6K
Liquidity
$676.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-0.2%
24h Vol
$237.5K
Liquidity
$64.4K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
+24.5%
24h Vol
$202.6K
Liquidity
$3.4M
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-0.1%
24h Vol
$266.8K
Liquidity
$29.1K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market