Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $183.7K in 24h volume, and $582.3K in liquidity.

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This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.