
+9.8%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$144.6K
Liquidity
$144.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings?. The market currently shows a live probability of 39%, $3.7K in 24h volume, and $2.9K in liquidity.
Probability
39%
24h Volume
$3.7K
Liquidity
$2.9K
This market asks whether CarMax will report quarterly GAAP earnings per share above $0.94 in its next earnings release. CarMax is a major used-car retailer, so its results are watched as a read on consumer demand, vehicle pricing, and financing conditions in the auto market.
The event centers on CarMax, ticker KMX, and its next quarterly earnings announcement, which the market description says is estimated for June 17, 2026. The question is simple: will the company’s reported GAAP EPS for that quarter come in above the $0.94 Street consensus figure, yes or no. Resolution is based first on the GAAP EPS shown in CarMax’s official earnings documents; if the company does not publish GAAP EPS, the market falls back to the figure reported by SeekingAlpha, with additional timing rules if no figure appears.
Earnings surprises matter because even a small difference versus analyst expectations can change how investors read a company’s momentum and outlook. For CarMax, the debate is not just about whether profits are up or down, but whether management can clear a consensus threshold that reflects expectations for margins, sales volumes, and operating costs. This market captures that uncertainty around a single, clearly defined number rather than a broad judgment about the business.
Any new information that changes expectations for CarMax’s upcoming report can move the market, especially company guidance, macro signals on auto demand, used-car pricing, and financing conditions for buyers. Traders will also watch whether the company is likely to beat or miss the $0.94 EPS consensus based on commentary from management, seasonal trends, or broader retail-auto comparisons. Because the contract resolves on reported GAAP EPS, surprises tied to one-time charges, expenses, or accounting items can matter as much as operating performance.
Related markets

+9.8%
24h Vol
$144.6K
Liquidity
$144.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 39% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is the actual earnings release date and the GAAP EPS figure in the official company materials, since the contract resolves on that reported number. If CarMax releases earnings without GAAP EPS, the market rules switch to the SeekingAlpha figure, and if that number does not appear within 96 hours of the market close on announcement day, the outcome is No. Readers should also note the timing safeguard: if CarMax does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated date, the market resolves No, and later restatements do not count unless there is an obvious immediate error.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings?. The market currently shows a live probability of 39%, $3.7K in 24h volume, and $2.9K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
38.5%
No
61.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 17, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
As of market creation, CarMax is estimated to release earnings on June 17, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for CarMax's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.94 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if CarMax reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.94 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If CarMax releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 39%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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