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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$53.3K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 6%, $4.4K in 24h volume, and $20.4K in liquidity.
Probability
6%
24h Volume
$4.4K
Liquidity
$20.4K
This market asks whether Naim Qassem will no longer be Hezbollah’s secretary-general at any point before the June 30, 2026 cutoff. It is centered on leadership continuity inside Hezbollah, so the key issue is whether Qassem remains in the role uninterrupted through the deadline. Readers should pay close attention to the resolution rules, since even a temporary loss of office can matter here.
Naim Qassem is Hezbollah’s secretary-general, the top leadership position in the organization. The market resolves “Yes” if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise stops serving in that role for any length of time between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The primary source is official Hezbollah statements, with credible reporting allowed as a backup if needed.
This market is about whether Hezbollah’s leadership remains stable through the specified period. Qassem’s status matters because a change at the top could signal internal succession, external pressure, or a disruption in the group’s command structure. The disagreement being priced is not about ideology or policy, but about whether the existing secretary-general will still be in place by the deadline.
Any official Hezbollah announcement involving Qassem’s resignation, replacement, detention, or inability to perform his duties would be the clearest price-moving event. Reports that credibly indicate a leadership transition, even if temporary, could also move the market because the rules treat any loss of the position within the timeframe as a “Yes” outcome. Silence or continued appearances in the role would tend to support the “No” side, while ambiguity over acting leadership or succession would keep attention on the exact wording of any statement.
The current market price implies roughly a 6% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$53.3K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe most important thing to verify is the exact resolution cutoff and source standard: the market description says June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and official Hezbollah statements are primary. Because the URL text references a different date, readers should rely on the market rules shown on the page and check for any clarification from the market operator if those dates do not match. Any final decision will likely turn on whether there is a clear official statement or a well-supported consensus that Qassem ceased serving as secretary-general before the deadline.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 6%, $4.4K in 24h volume, and $20.4K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
5.5%
No
94.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 6%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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