politics
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
+0.1%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
24h Vol
$244.5K
Liquidity
$620.7K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketWorld
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Netanyahu out by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $35K in 24h volume, and $102.5K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$35K
Liquidity
$102.5K
This market asks whether Benjamin Netanyahu will stop serving as prime minister of Israel at any point before June 30, 2026. Because the outcome can resolve on a resignation, removal, or even an announced departure before it takes effect, the key issue is not just who leads Israel on the deadline but whether there is any official break in Netanyahu’s tenure before then.
Benjamin Netanyahu is Israel’s prime minister, so this market is tracking whether he will cease holding that office for any period between market creation and June 30, 2026. The rules are specific: if Netanyahu announces a resignation or removal before the end date, the market resolves to Yes immediately, even if the change would take effect later. Resolution is based primarily on official information from Netanyahu or the Israeli government, though a clear consensus of credible reporting can also be used if needed.
There is uncertainty because Netanyahu’s position depends on Israeli coalition politics, public pressure, legal and security developments, and the durability of the government itself. Readers care because a change in Israel’s leadership would be a major political event with consequences for domestic policy, the Gaza war, relations with allies, and broader regional diplomacy. The market is essentially pricing the chance that Netanyahu’s tenure is interrupted before the date, not just whether he remains in office indefinitely.
An official resignation statement, a removal from office, a coalition collapse that leads to a replacement prime minister, or any formal announcement that Netanyahu will step down before June 30 would push the market toward Yes under the stated rules. By contrast, a stable governing coalition, a public commitment to remain in office, or the absence of any credible departure signal would support the No side. Because the market resolves on official announcements, even a planned transition can matter as soon as it is declared, not only when it actually takes effect.
Related markets
+0.1%
24h Vol
$244.5K
Liquidity
$620.7K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important thing to verify is whether Netanyahu remains prime minister on the deadline and whether any prior announcement has already triggered the Yes condition. Readers should check official statements from Netanyahu’s office and the Israeli government first, then look for a clear consensus among credible reporting if the official record is ambiguous. The main ambiguity risk is the difference between announcing a resignation and the resignation becoming effective later, since this market says an announced departure before the end date is enough to resolve Yes.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Netanyahu out by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $35K in 24h volume, and $102.5K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
2.3%
No
97.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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