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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$43.8K
Liquidity
$192.6K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?. The market currently shows a live probability of 65%, $248.2K in 24h volume, and $3.1K in liquidity.
Probability
65%
24h Volume
$248.2K
Liquidity
$3.1K
This market asks whether OpenAI’s market capitalization will finish above $1.2 trillion on the company’s first trading day after an IPO. It matters because the answer depends on two separate things: whether OpenAI goes public by the deadline, and whether the company’s official closing valuation clears a very high threshold on that debut day.
The event is tied to a possible OpenAI IPO, with a cutoff of December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. To resolve “Yes,” the official closing price on OpenAI’s first trading day must imply a market cap above $1.2T, using the total outstanding shares times the closing share price. If there is no IPO by the deadline, the market resolves “No,” and if the first trading session is interrupted, the rules use the official closing price for the abbreviated session or the next published official close.
OpenAI is one of the most closely watched private companies, so any public listing would immediately raise questions about demand, pricing, and how investors would value the business on day one. The market is pricing uncertainty around both the timing of a potential listing and the size of the debut valuation, which can be affected by the share count, the IPO price, and how the stock trades once it opens. The $1.2T threshold is a specific line in the sand, so even a successful IPO could still resolve “No” if the closing valuation lands below that level.
Any concrete sign that OpenAI is preparing for, delaying, or shelving an IPO could shift this market, since no offering by the deadline resolves it to “No.” If a filing, prospectus, exchange listing notice, or other official IPO step appears, traders will focus on the implied share count and expected pricing range because those determine whether $1.2T is realistic on the first close. After listing, the official closing price on the first trading day is the key number, so sharp intraday moves, a weak debut, or an abbreviated-session close would all matter.
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24h Vol
$43.8K
Liquidity
$192.6K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 65% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The main source of truth is the primary exchange’s official listing page, with another reliable source only used if the figure is not displayed there. Readers should verify whether OpenAI actually completes an IPO before the deadline, whether the first trading day has a normal official close or an abbreviated-session close, and whether the reported share count matches the market-cap calculation in the rules. Because the market is based on the official closing price rather than intraday highs, early excitement or a strong opening alone will not determine the outcome.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?. The market currently shows a live probability of 65%, $248.2K in 24h volume, and $3.1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
65%
No
35%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 65%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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