culture
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$53.9K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 53%, $80.8K in 24h volume, and $13.3K in liquidity.
Probability
53%
24h Volume
$80.8K
Liquidity
$13.3K
Current
53.5%
Change
-19.2%
High
73.4%
Low
51.1%
Yes moved from 72.7% to 53.5% over the full available history, trading between 51.1% and 73.4%.
Yes price history from Polymarket CLOB.
124 points
This market asks whether OpenSea’s token will be valued above $100 million in fully diluted terms one day after launch. It is aimed at the first public trading window after the token becomes actively transferable, so the key issue is not just whether a token appears, but how the market prices it immediately after launch.
OpenSea is the NFT marketplace brand behind this market, and the event is defined around the launch of its token rather than the company itself. The question is whether the token’s fully diluted valuation, using the most liquid price source available, is above $100 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. The token must be publicly transferable and tradable to count as launched; if OpenSea never launches a token by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.
There is uncertainty because token launches can produce very different valuations depending on supply, initial float, exchange access, and early market demand. OpenSea is a well-known crypto-native consumer brand, so traders may disagree on whether that recognition translates into a high post-launch valuation or a softer debut. The market is essentially pricing the gap between brand-driven hype and the actual terms of the token’s first day in public markets.
Any confirmed launch details can matter: the token’s ticker, total supply, distribution plan, transferability, and where it can be traded all affect how a fully diluted valuation would be read. A launch on a large, liquid venue could support a higher initial price than a thinly traded debut, while a small supply or heavily restricted distribution could push the FDV lower or higher depending on how the market interprets it. Because resolution depends on the valuation one day after launch, the first 24 hours of trading and any official clarification about token mechanics are especially important.
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24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$53.9K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 53% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should verify whether OpenSea has actually launched a token that is publicly transferable and tradable, since that is the trigger for the market clock. The key resolution frame is 4:00 PM ET on the day after launch, and the outcome depends on the token’s FDV at that time using the most liquid price source available. If the launch never happens before the December 31, 2026 cutoff, the market resolves to No, so the exact launch date and any official token documentation are the main details to watch.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 53%, $80.8K in 24h volume, and $13.3K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
53.5%
No
46.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 1, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 53%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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