culture
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$53.1K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 45%, $131.8 in 24h volume, and $7.3K in liquidity.
Probability
45%
24h Volume
$131.8
Liquidity
$7.3K
This market is about whether OpenSea’s token, if it launches, will have a fully diluted valuation above $300 million one day later. OpenSea is a major NFT marketplace, so a token launch would be closely watched for what it signals about the company’s next phase and how the market values it.
The question is narrowly defined: will OpenSea’s token have an FDV above the dollar amount named in the title at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. The market only counts a true launch if the token is actively, publicly transferable and tradable, and if no token launches by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is the most liquid price source available, so the practical issue is the token’s tradable market value at that specific time.
OpenSea is a recognizable crypto brand, but a token launch can be priced very differently depending on supply, distribution, trading access, and early demand. That creates uncertainty about whether the post-launch FDV clears the threshold in the title, especially because the market is not asking whether the token exists, but whether it is valued above that level one day after it becomes tradable. Readers are effectively watching for disagreement over the size of the launch, how quickly trading develops, and whether the market assigns a premium or discount to the new token.
The biggest mover is a verified token launch announcement that makes clear when the asset becomes publicly transferable and tradable, since the market does not resolve until that condition is met. Terms that affect initial supply, circulating float, unlocks, and exchange or venue access can all influence the first-day valuation and therefore the FDV used at resolution. If the launch is delayed, shaped differently than expected, or fails to happen before the deadline, that would push the market toward No.
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24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$53.1K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 45% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, readers should verify whether OpenSea has actually launched a token under the market’s definition: it must be publicly tradable, not just announced or hinted at. The key timestamp is 4:00 PM ET on the day after launch, and the price will come from the most liquid source available, so the relevant check is the token’s market value at that exact time rather than intraday peaks. The main ambiguity risk is a launch that is partially live, restricted, or difficult to price cleanly because the market rules require active transferability and tradability.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?. The market currently shows a live probability of 45%, $131.8 in 24h volume, and $7.3K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
45%
No
55%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 1, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 45%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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