
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 9%, $27.8K in 24h volume, and $499.9K in liquidity.
Probability
9%
24h Volume
$27.8K
Liquidity
$499.9K
This market asks whether Vladimir Putin will cease to be President of Russia at any point before the end of 2026. Because the contract resolves on any resignation, removal, or effective permanent inability to serve, it is watching both formal political succession and any abrupt exit from office.
The event is specifically about Putin’s continued tenure as president through December 31, 2026, with resolution set for 18:30 UTC on that date. The market resolves “Yes” if he stops serving as president for any period during the market window, including if an official announcement says he will resign or be removed even before that change takes effect. The rules also say that detention, effective removal, or being permanently prevented from doing the job would count as a “Yes,” and the source of truth is official information from Putin and the Russian government, with credible reporting as backup if needed.
Putin has been Russia’s dominant political figure for years, so the main uncertainty is not whether he is important, but whether there will be any formal break in his presidency before the deadline. Readers care because a departure would be a major political event with consequences for succession, state power, and Russia’s direction, while continuity would leave the current system intact. The market is pricing disagreement over how durable Putin’s hold on office remains over the next year and a half, given the possibility of a resignation, removal, or other forced exit.
The price could move sharply on any official Kremlin or government statement about resignation, dismissal, succession, or incapacity. Credible reports of a serious health issue, detention, or a constitutional or political transition would also matter because the contract counts effective removal and permanent inability to serve. On the other side, public appearances, formal decrees, or other official signals that Putin is continuing in office would reinforce the “No” outcome.
Related markets

-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 9% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the deadline, the key things to verify are whether any official announcement says Putin has resigned, been removed, or can no longer fulfill presidential duties, and whether that change is treated as effective within the market window. Readers should pay close attention to the exact resolution language: an announcement before the end date can settle the market “Yes” even if the departure takes effect later. The main ambiguity risk is whether a reported development is enough to count as permanent removal or only a temporary absence, so the official Russian government record and any consensus credible reporting are the most important sources to watch.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 9%, $27.8K in 24h volume, and $499.9K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
8.5%
No
91.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 9%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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