economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $1.8M in 24h volume, and $549.7K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$1.8M
Liquidity
$549.7K
This market asks whether Hunter Biden will be the Democratic Party’s nominee for U.S. president in 2028 and formally accept that nomination. The result will be determined by official Democratic Party sources, so the key question is not just whether he runs, but whether he actually becomes the party’s chosen standard-bearer.
The title names Hunter Biden, the son of President Joe Biden, and the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, which is the party’s process for selecting its candidate for president. Under the market rules, it resolves Yes only if Hunter Biden wins the nomination and accepts it; if someone else is nominated, or if he is replaced before election day, the market still resolves No. The resolution date is tied to the 2028 election cycle, with the market ending on November 7, 2028 unless it resolves earlier.
A presidential nomination is decided through a party process that can involve primaries, caucuses, pledged delegates, and a national convention, so there is genuine uncertainty over who emerges as the nominee years in advance. Hunter Biden is a well-known political figure, but he is not a conventional front-runner name in presidential politics, which is why this market draws attention. The disagreement being priced is whether his name ever becomes the Democratic Party’s official choice, not whether he is discussed, endorsed, or briefly floated in public debate.
Statements from Hunter Biden about running, filing paperwork, or organizing a campaign would matter, but they would not be enough on their own under this market’s rules. More important would be any official Democratic Party process that puts him in contention, delegate math at the convention, or a formal nomination decision from party sources. Because the market resolves only on a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, developments that affect the party’s certified nominee or any replacement nominee are the events most likely to move it.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official Democratic Party nomination process, especially primary results, delegate counts, convention proceedings, and any final certification of the nominee. The source of truth here is explicit: the market looks to a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, so unofficial media reports or speculation are not enough. It is also important to note the rule that a replacement of the nominee before election day does not change the resolution, meaning the named individual must actually secure and accept the nomination for a Yes outcome.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $1.8M in 24h volume, and $549.7K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
2.7%
No
97.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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