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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$43K
Liquidity
$193.4K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings?. The market currently shows a live probability of 26%, $3K in 24h volume, and $1.8K in liquidity.
Probability
26%
24h Volume
$3K
Liquidity
$1.8K
This market asks a simple question about RH’s next quarterly report: will the home furnishings company post non-GAAP earnings per share above the Street’s current estimate of -$2.05? Because the threshold is negative, the outcome depends on whether RH’s adjusted earnings come in less weak than analysts expect, which makes the upcoming release on or around June 11, 2026 the key event to watch.
RH, the company formerly known as Restoration Hardware, is scheduled to report quarterly earnings around June 11, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if RH’s next quarterly earnings release shows non-GAAP EPS greater than -$2.05 for that quarter; otherwise it resolves to No. The official earnings documents are the primary source, and the market only falls back to Seeking Alpha or then GAAP EPS if non-GAAP EPS is not published.
Earnings surprises are often judged against the market’s consensus estimate, and here the bar is set at a loss of $2.05 per share on a non-GAAP basis. Investors and market participants may disagree about whether RH can beat that estimate because the company’s results can be sensitive to demand for premium home goods, margins, and management’s ability to control costs. The market is pricing that disagreement into a single yes-or-no outcome based on the reported EPS figure.
The biggest price moves will come from anything that changes the odds RH clears the -$2.05 non-GAAP EPS threshold: the actual earnings release, any pre-announcement, and the wording of the company’s official documents. If RH does not publish non-GAAP EPS, traders will watch for whether Seeking Alpha posts a figure within the 96-hour window, and if not, whether the official filing or Seeking Alpha provides GAAP EPS instead. Any delay beyond 45 calendar days from the estimated earnings date would also push the market to No under the rules.
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24h Vol
$43K
Liquidity
$193.4K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 26% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, check the timing of RH’s earnings release, since the rules say the company must report within 45 calendar days of the estimated date or the outcome is No. The source of truth is RH’s official earnings materials first, then Seeking Alpha only if non-GAAP EPS is missing, and then GAAP EPS under the stated fallback rules. Readers should also pay attention to whether the release specifies diluted or basic GAAP EPS, because the market’s resolution hierarchy depends on what is actually published.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings?. The market currently shows a live probability of 26%, $3K in 24h volume, and $1.8K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
25.5%
No
74.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 11, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
As of market creation, RH is estimated to release earnings on June 11, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for RH’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-2.05 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if RH reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $-2.05 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If RH releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 26%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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