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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$43.8K
Liquidity
$194.6K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $249 in 24h volume, and $10.2K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$249
Liquidity
$10.2K
This market asks whether the CME Active Month silver futures settlement will finish June 2026 below $50 per troy ounce. Silver is a widely traded precious metal, so the question mainly comes down to where the official CME settlement lands on the month’s final trading day.
The contract is tied to CME Silver futures, identified by the symbol SI, and resolves using the official settlement price for the Active Month on the final trading day of June 2026. The outcome is simply whether that official settlement is strictly less than $50 or not. If the settlement falls exactly on a bracket boundary, the market uses the higher bracket, and only CME’s published Active Month settlement counts.
The uncertainty here is about whether silver can stay under a round-number threshold by the end of June, which can matter to traders who watch precious-metals prices, inflation hedging, and commodity momentum. Because the rule uses an exchange settlement rather than an intraday quote, the answer depends on CME’s final published number, not on where silver traded during the session. That leaves room for disagreement around how the metal will be priced into month-end.
The most direct drivers are moves in silver futures themselves, especially late-month price action that pushes the Active Month settlement toward or away from $50. Changes in U.S. interest-rate expectations, dollar strength, and broader risk sentiment can all affect precious metals, while a shift in the Active Month contract around CME’s delivery-cycle rules could also matter because the market follows the designated Active Month rather than a generic nearby contract. Any sharp move on the final trading day matters more than intraday spikes because only the official settlement is used.
The current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$43.8K
Liquidity
$194.6K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketWatch CME’s published settlement for the Active Month Silver futures contract on the final trading day of June 2026, since that is the sole source of truth for resolution. The market rules also say that if June’s final session is shortened, the shortened-session settlement still counts, and if no settlement is published for that session, the most recent June settlement for the Active Month will be used instead. The main ambiguity to check is whether the contract identified as the Active Month has changed under CME’s delivery-cycle schedule, because only that month’s official settlement is relevant.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $249 in 24h volume, and $10.2K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
2.5%
No
97.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Silver futures on the final trading day of June 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June. For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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