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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2.2M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will a dozen eggs cost <$1.50 in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $2.3K in 24h volume, and $2.2K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$2.3K
Liquidity
$2.2K
This market asks whether the U.S. average price of a dozen Grade A large eggs will come in below $1.50 for May 2026. It is tied to a very specific government price series, so the answer depends on the official monthly data rather than grocery store anecdotes or headline inflation numbers. Because egg prices can move sharply from one month to the next, this is a narrow, data-driven question worth watching on the CPI calendar.
The underlying measure is "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average," the series the St. Louis Fed posts on FRED under APU0000708111. The market resolves when the May data point is published by the St. Louis Fed, which the description says is scheduled for June 10, 2026, and it uses the published value to decide whether the price falls below the $1.50 cutoff. The source measures prices to three decimal places, and if the value lands exactly on a boundary, resolution goes to the higher bracket.
Egg prices are a common example of a household staple that can swing with feed costs, disease outbreaks, supply disruptions, and seasonal demand, so even a seemingly simple threshold like $1.50 can be uncertain. People following this market are really watching whether the official May CPI-derived egg price stays under a round-number level that is easy to compare and easy to miss by a few cents. The disagreement being priced is not about private store pricing, but about the exact national average that the government series will publish.
The biggest price-moving development is the release of the May egg price itself in the St. Louis Fed/FRED update tied to the BLS CPI data. Any change in expectations for that release, such as anticipation of a higher or lower CPI print for eggs, can shift the market before the publication date. Because the cutoff is $1.50, even a small revision or a value that sits just above or just below the threshold can change the outcome.
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24h Vol
$2.2M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this market resolves, readers should check the exact FRED update for the May 2026 value of APU0000708111 and make sure they are looking at the St. Louis Fed chart update, not a separate retail price tracker. The key deadline is the June 10, 2026 release date listed in the market description, and if May data were somehow delayed, the market would fall back to the last available month under the stated rules. The main ambiguity risk is simple but important: the result depends on the official published series value to three decimal places, so a small rounding difference or a boundary value could decide the bracket.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will a dozen eggs cost <$1.50 in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $2.3K in 24h volume, and $2.2K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the May data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111). The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The May release is presently scheduled for June 10, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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