Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?

What this market is about

The reference series is the St. Louis Fed’s "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" line, which is based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data. The market resolves when the St. Louis Fed updates the chart for the May 2026 data point, currently expected around June 10, 2026. If the May reading is not published by the time the next month’s data would normally appear, the market uses the last available month instead, and values are resolved to the third decimal place.

Why the market exists

Egg prices can move quickly from month to month because of changes in supply, feed costs, seasonal demand, and animal health shocks, so even a narrow price band can be uncertain. Readers may care because eggs are a widely watched household staple, and this specific series is a clean official benchmark rather than a store-by-store price check. The market is effectively pricing whether the May national average will sit inside this exact range or land just above or below it.

What can move the price

The biggest price mover is the May CPI reading itself, since that is the source used by the St. Louis Fed series and it determines the final bracket. Any revision or delayed posting from the publication chain could also matter, because the rules say the market resolves on the updated chart or, if needed, the last available month. Because the cutoff is narrow, a value near $2.25 or $2.50 is especially important: even a small difference in the third decimal place can change which bracket wins.

How to read the current probability