economy
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0%
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 9%, $2.9K in 24h volume, and $293.5K in liquidity.
Probability
9%
24h Volume
$2.9K
Liquidity
$293.5K
This market asks whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will secure the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nomination and accept it. It is a long-horizon political market tied to the formal nomination process, not to early speculation about who might run or lead in polls today. Because the outcome depends on party decisions at the 2028 convention and related official actions, the key question is whether her path to the nomination becomes the party’s final choice.
The contract resolves “Yes” only if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president. The description makes clear that the resolution depends on official Democratic Party sources and that a replacement nominee before Election Day does not change the outcome, which means the focus is the original nominee selection itself. The end date is tied to the 2028 election calendar, but the real event is the party’s nomination decision, not the general election result.
This market reflects uncertainty around who Democrats will choose in 2028 and whether Ocasio-Cortez will be the party’s nominee at all. She is a nationally known Democratic figure, but presidential nominations usually depend on a mix of campaign strength, delegate support, party endorsements, and convention outcomes that are impossible to lock in years ahead of time. The market is pricing disagreement over how realistic her nomination path looks versus the much wider field of possible contenders.
Price can move if Ocasio-Cortez is widely viewed as preparing a presidential run, if she secures major endorsements, or if reporting on the Democratic primary field makes her look more or less viable as a convention winner. Official party rules, delegate counts, debate qualifications, and changes in the nomination calendar would matter a great deal because the market resolves only on the party’s actual nominee. Any announcement that she will not seek the nomination, or that another candidate has effectively consolidated support, would also push expectations away from a “Yes” outcome.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 9% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important source of truth is the official Democratic Party nominee selection process and any formal convention action naming the 2028 presidential nominee. Readers should watch for the candidate filing rules, delegate allocation rules, and the final convention vote, since those are what determine who actually wins and accepts the nomination. A key ambiguity risk is that the contract ignores later replacement of the nominee, so the relevant question is who is first chosen as the Democratic nominee, not who remains on the ballot in November.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 9%, $2.9K in 24h volume, and $293.5K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
9.4%
No
90.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 9%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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