economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $20.4 in 24h volume, and $68.7K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$20.4
Liquidity
$68.7K
This market asks a simple question with a lot of moving parts: will Alfonso López Chau be the candidate who ultimately wins Peru’s 2026 presidential election? Peru’s general election is scheduled for April 12, 2026, and the result could still depend on a second round, so the outcome may not be settled on the first ballot.
The page tracks whether Alfonso López Chau ends up as the official winner of the next Peruvian presidential election. The market includes any runoff, so a win can come either in the first round or after a second round if no candidate clears the threshold needed to avoid one. If the election result is still not definitively known by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other,” and any ambiguity is settled using the official ONPE and JNE results.
This market reflects uncertainty about both López Chau’s strength as a national contender and the shape of the 2026 race itself. Peruvian presidential elections can change quickly as campaigns develop, alliances shift, and vote splitting or runoff dynamics reshape the field, so a named candidate’s path to victory is not straightforward. Readers are essentially watching whether López Chau can move from being one option among many to the final winner recognized by Peru’s electoral authorities.
The price can move if official campaign announcements, candidate registrations, or coalition deals change López Chau’s standing in the race. It can also react to polling trends, debates, endorsements, or signs that he is gaining—or losing—support relative to other major contenders, especially if a runoff looks likely. Any official election update from ONPE or JNE, including first-round results, runoff qualification, or final certification, would be the most important driver.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketBefore this market resolves, the key items to verify are the official election calendar, whether López Chau remains an active candidate, and whether the first round produces a clear winner or sends the contest to a runoff. The resolution rules point first to ONPE and JNE, so those are the source of truth if there is any dispute about who won. Readers should also keep an eye on the October 31, 2026 deadline, because a delayed or contested result after that point would resolve to “Other.”
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $20.4 in 24h volume, and $68.7K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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