world
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
1%
-0.7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
24h Vol
$1.5M
Liquidity
$813.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketWorld
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 29%, $265.6 in 24h volume, and $4.3K in liquidity.
Probability
29%
24h Volume
$265.6
Liquidity
$4.3K
This market asks whether Alphabet will rank as the world’s third-largest company by market value at the close on June 30, 2026. Alphabet’s place in that ranking can shift with its own share price and with the valuations of other mega-cap companies, so the answer is sensitive to both market moves and the relative performance of peers.
The event is not asking whether Alphabet is a large company in general, but whether it will be number three globally by market capitalization at market close on June 30, 2026. Alphabet refers to the parent company of Google, and the market’s resolution depends on where it stands in the global rankings on that specific date and time. The description says the source will be a consensus of credible reporting, so the practical question is which widely used reporting sources agree on the ranking at the close.
Alphabet can move up or down in the global market-cap table as investors reprice it relative to other giants such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta. That creates uncertainty not just about Alphabet’s own valuation, but about whether another company will overtake it or fall behind by the deadline. Readers care because this is a concrete ranking question with a fixed cutoff, and small valuation changes can matter when the top companies are clustered closely.
Big moves in Alphabet shares, especially after earnings, guidance, regulatory developments, or major AI product updates, can quickly change its standing. The price can also shift if another top company surges or drops, since the market only resolves based on the final ranking, not Alphabet in isolation. Because the deadline is tied to market close on June 30, 2026, late-session price action and any same-day re-ratings of large peers could be decisive.
The current market price implies roughly a 29% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.7%
24h Vol
$1.5M
Liquidity
$813.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketBefore resolution, readers should check how the market defines the ranking source: it relies on a consensus of credible reporting, so consistency across reputable financial sources matters more than any single headline. It is also important to verify whether the ranking is being measured at the close on June 30, 2026, and whether the comparison uses the exact market cap at that time rather than a rough estimate or an intraday ranking. The main ambiguity risk is whether different outlets briefly disagree on the order of the largest companies, so the final call may depend on how those reports frame the close.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 29%, $265.6 in 24h volume, and $4.3K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
29%
No
71%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 29%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
--
24h Vol
$54.6K
Liquidity
$359.9K
Spread
0%
4/30/2027
View market
+1%
24h Vol
$786.2K
Liquidity
$151.9K
Spread
1%
6/30/2026
View market
-0.1%
24h Vol
$161.4K
Liquidity
$185.8K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View market
+0.1%
24h Vol
$244.2K
Liquidity
$19.7K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-1%
24h Vol
$225.6K
Liquidity
$475.6K
Spread
1%
12/31/2026
View market