politics
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
+0.1%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
24h Vol
$245.6K
Liquidity
$618K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketWorld
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 17%, $100.2K in 24h volume, and $507.1K in liquidity.
Probability
17%
24h Volume
$100.2K
Liquidity
$507.1K
This market asks whether the United States will launch a military offensive against Iran before the end of 2026, with the key legal line drawn around whether that operation is intended to establish control over any part of Iranian territory. Because U.S.-Iran tensions can shift quickly through diplomacy, military deployments, or conflict escalation, this is a market where official statements and verified actions matter more than speculation. The title says “before 2027,” but the market’s actual cutoff is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
The question is not about sanctions, cyber operations, covert activity, or isolated strikes by themselves; it is specifically about the United States commencing a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran. The description also says that territory de facto controlled by either country as of November 4, 2025 at 12:00 PM ET will be treated as sovereign territory for resolution purposes, which is meant to reduce ambiguity over border or control claims. Resolution will come from a consensus of credible sources, so readers should focus on whether reporting and official records clearly describe an offensive with that territorial-control intent.
Iran has long been a major flashpoint in U.S. foreign policy, and the difference between deterrence, limited military action, and a broader invasion is large enough that market participants can disagree on the odds. The uncertainty here is not just about whether conflict might happen, but about whether any U.S. action would meet the market’s narrower standard of an offensive aimed at controlling Iranian territory. That makes diplomatic breakdowns, military escalation, and formal authorizations especially relevant to how people may judge the outcome.
Official U.S. or Iranian statements, congressional action, troop movements, or publicly confirmed military operations could all move this market if they suggest a shift from deterrence to an offensive posture. Diplomatic breakthroughs, ceasefire arrangements, or de-escalatory messaging would tend to reduce the likelihood that the market assigns to a 2026 invasion. Because the resolution standard depends on intent to establish control, a limited strike or retaliation would matter less than any clear plan, order, or campaign described as occupying or seizing Iranian territory.
Related markets
+0.1%
24h Vol
$245.6K
Liquidity
$618K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 17% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch for the exact wording in official announcements, authenticated government records, and widely accepted reporting, especially anything that speaks to occupation, control, or territorial objectives inside Iran. The deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, so events after that point do not count even if they are related. The biggest ambiguity risk is whether a military action is described as an offensive to establish control, or as something narrower such as a strike, raid, or defensive response; the market’s consensus-based source standard will matter if those lines are disputed.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 17%, $100.2K in 24h volume, and $507.1K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
16.5%
No
83.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 17%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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