finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
7%
+1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$62.3K
Liquidity
$169K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Amazon have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $106 in 24h volume, and $3.9K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$106
Liquidity
$3.9K
This market asks whether Amazon will be the company behind the top-ranked coding model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of June 2026. It is less about broad AI hype and more about a very specific benchmark snapshot: which company’s model sits in first place on the coding leaderboard at the exact check time.
The question resolves by looking at the "Text Arena | Coding" leaderboard on lmarena.ai, with style control off, at June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The winning company is the one whose model holds the #1 rank under the leaderboard’s "Rank" column at that moment, using the arena score and tie-break rules spelled out in the market description. If Amazon’s model is first, the market resolves "Yes"; otherwise it resolves "No".
Amazon is part of the broader race among major AI labs and cloud companies to ship strong coding models, where small differences in benchmark performance can change perceptions of technical leadership. This market isolates one narrow question: not whether Amazon has good coding models in general, but whether it has the single best one on this public leaderboard at the specified time. The uncertainty comes from rapid model releases, leaderboard movement, and the possibility that another company’s model is ahead when the check is made.
Price can move when Amazon announces or releases a stronger coding model, especially if it appears on the Chatbot Arena coding leaderboard and climbs toward first place. It can also move if a rival company such as Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, or another lab posts a higher-ranked coding model, since the market is about which company owns the top slot. Changes to the leaderboard itself, including rank shifts, score updates, or tie-break outcomes among closely matched models, are especially important because the resolution depends on the exact ranking at the check time.
Related markets
+1%
24h Vol
$62.3K
Liquidity
$169K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard’s coding table, not general product announcements alone, because the market resolves from the leaderboard ranking at the specified time. The key details to verify are the "Text Arena | Coding" tab, style control off, the Rank column, and the June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET check time. If the leaderboard is unavailable at that moment, the market stays open until it returns, so the source-of-truth timing and any tie-break rules matter more than headlines or marketing claims.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Amazon have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $106 in 24h volume, and $3.9K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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