SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?

What this market is about

The question is tied to SpaceX’s first day of trading on a public exchange, if and when that IPO happens. Resolution depends on the company’s official closing market capitalization on that first trading day, calculated from the total outstanding shares times the closing share price, and the outcome is “Yes” only if that figure is above $3T. If SpaceX does not go public by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No”.

Why the market exists

SpaceX is one of the most closely watched private companies in the world, so any eventual IPO could attract heavy attention from investors, employees, and the broader market. The uncertainty here is not just whether an IPO happens, but also what price the market would assign to SpaceX once its shares start trading and how many shares are outstanding at that point. That combination makes the $3T threshold a live question with real disagreement around how aggressively the market could value the company.

What can move the price

The biggest price drivers are concrete developments around a SpaceX IPO: an official filing, an announced listing timeline, the share count in the offering, and any language from the company or exchange about pricing expectations. News that suggests a larger float, stronger demand, or a higher implied private valuation would tend to support the “Yes” side, while delays, a smaller-than-expected listing, or signs of a more modest valuation would lean the other way. Because the market resolves from the first official closing price, the actual opening-day trading level matters, but only insofar as it leads to the exchange’s published close.

How to read the current probability