
+0.1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$473.8K
Liquidity
$214.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?. The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $161.1K in 24h volume, and $139.3K in liquidity.
Probability
7%
24h Volume
$161.1K
Liquidity
$139.3K
This market asks whether SpaceX’s first official closing market value after an IPO would exceed $3 trillion. It is a very high bar for any company, and the market is watching a future public listing event rather than SpaceX’s private valuation today.
The question is tied to SpaceX’s first day of trading on a public exchange, if and when that IPO happens. Resolution depends on the company’s official closing market capitalization on that first trading day, calculated from the total outstanding shares times the closing share price, and the outcome is “Yes” only if that figure is above $3T. If SpaceX does not go public by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No”.
SpaceX is one of the most closely watched private companies in the world, so any eventual IPO could attract heavy attention from investors, employees, and the broader market. The uncertainty here is not just whether an IPO happens, but also what price the market would assign to SpaceX once its shares start trading and how many shares are outstanding at that point. That combination makes the $3T threshold a live question with real disagreement around how aggressively the market could value the company.
The biggest price drivers are concrete developments around a SpaceX IPO: an official filing, an announced listing timeline, the share count in the offering, and any language from the company or exchange about pricing expectations. News that suggests a larger float, stronger demand, or a higher implied private valuation would tend to support the “Yes” side, while delays, a smaller-than-expected listing, or signs of a more modest valuation would lean the other way. Because the market resolves from the first official closing price, the actual opening-day trading level matters, but only insofar as it leads to the exchange’s published close.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$473.8K
Liquidity
$214.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 7% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key documents to watch are SpaceX’s IPO filing, the primary exchange’s official listing page, and the first published official closing price after trading begins. The market description is explicit that the resolution uses the exchange’s official closing market capitalization, and if that figure is not shown there, another reliable source may be used. Readers should also verify whether any trading interruption, abbreviated session, or delayed closing price changes which day counts as the first day of trading, since that affects the final resolution frame.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?. The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $161.1K in 24h volume, and $139.3K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
6.5%
No
93.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 7%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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