culture
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$52K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?. The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $310.4 in 24h volume, and $5.9K in liquidity.
Probability
5%
24h Volume
$310.4
Liquidity
$5.9K
This market asks whether any Anthropic Claude model will reach at least 55% on the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard by the June 30, 2026 deadline. It is worth watching because the question ties together a specific AI lab, a public benchmark, and a clearly defined cutoff date, so a new leaderboard entry could settle it quickly.
The event is narrowly defined: the market resolves "Yes" only if the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard shows at least one Anthropic Claude model with a score of 55% or higher by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The named entity here is Anthropic, the company behind the Claude family of models, and the source of truth is the Scale-hosted official leaderboard for Humanity’s Last Exam. If no Claude model reaches that threshold by the deadline, the outcome is "No."
Readers are effectively weighing whether Anthropic will have a Claude model that can clear a specific benchmark bar before the cutoff date. The uncertainty comes from the fact that AI model scores can change when new versions are released, when evaluation methods are updated, or when leaderboard standings move over time. People watching this market are usually trying to gauge the pace of Claude’s benchmark progress relative to a fixed target, not a general measure of AI capability.
The biggest price movers would be a new Claude model appearing on the leaderboard, an updated score crossing the 55% line, or an official leaderboard refresh that changes where Claude ranks. Any Anthropic announcement about a new model release or evaluation result could matter if it is reflected on the official leaderboard before the deadline. By contrast, talk about model performance that does not show up on the listed source would not settle the market on its own.
The current market price implies roughly a 5% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$52K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketBefore the market resolves, check the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard on Scale, since that is the only source that counts here. The key details are the exact score threshold of 55%, the requirement that the model name be an Anthropic Claude model, and the deadline of June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A reader should also watch for any naming ambiguity on the leaderboard, because the resolution depends on what the official page lists rather than on press releases or informal claims.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?. The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $310.4 in 24h volume, and $5.9K in liquidity.
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Yes
5.1%
No
95%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 5%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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