
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will annual inflation be 3.7% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $24K in 24h volume, and $11.7K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$24K
Liquidity
$11.7K
This market asks whether the U.S. Consumer Price Index will show 3.7% annual inflation for the 12 months ending in May 2026. That matters because the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses this monthly CPI release as the standard official snapshot of consumer inflation, and the May reading is one of the figures that feeds into policy, pricing, and economic expectations.
The event is tied to the BLS CPI report for May 2026, scheduled for release on June 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The question is specific: when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the year-over-year CPI change for the 12-month period ending in May 2026, will that figure round to 3.7% to one decimal place? Because the market resolves on the official BLS news release, the exact published CPI reading is what matters, not private estimates or later commentary.
There is real uncertainty in any monthly inflation print because prices for housing, energy, food, travel, and other goods and services can move unevenly from one month to the next. A one-tenth-of-a-point difference can change the answer, so traders are effectively weighing whether the May CPI reading will land at 3.7% or somewhere else after BLS rounding. Readers care because CPI is a widely watched benchmark for the cost of living and for how markets interpret the inflation outlook.
The market can move as new inflation data expectations solidify ahead of the BLS release, especially if analysts revise their forecasts for headline CPI. Changes in fuel prices, shelter inflation, food costs, or other major CPI components can shift whether the annual rate is likely to round to 3.7%. Since the contract resolves on the first official BLS publication, any clarity around the report date or a change in the release schedule could also matter, because the market’s endpoint is tied to that specific CPI announcement.
Related markets

-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the BLS Consumer Price Index news release for May 2026, not secondary summaries. Readers should verify the reported 12-month percentage change and remember that this market uses the BLS figure rounded to one decimal place, so 3.65% and 3.74% would not be treated the same if the official published value rounds differently. If the BLS delays the report, the contract rules say it can remain open until the next scheduled CPI release window, and if the relevant data still is not available by then, it falls back to the most recent prior month with available data.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will annual inflation be 3.7% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $24K in 24h volume, and $11.7K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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