Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $656.7 in 24h volume, and $10.7K in liquidity.

Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.

This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending May 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.