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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$44.8K
Liquidity
$200.4K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $153.2K in 24h volume, and $28.7K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$153.2K
Liquidity
$28.7K
This market is about whether Anthropic’s first public trading session will value the company at between $100 billion and $200 billion at the close. It is anchored to a specific event — an Anthropic IPO — so the key issue is not just whether the company lists, but what the market assigns it by the end of day one.
Anthropic is the AI company behind Claude, and this contract resolves on its market capitalization at the closing price of its first day of trading. The answer is “Yes” only if Anthropic’s closing market cap lands in the $100B to $200B band; if it does not go public by June 30, 2026, the market resolves to “No IPO by June 30, 2026.” If the value falls exactly on a boundary between brackets, the higher range wins, and if trading is interrupted the official closing price rules in the description control resolution.
The uncertainty here is twofold: whether Anthropic will actually reach the public markets by the deadline, and if it does, how investors will price it on opening day. Anthropic is one of the best-known private AI companies, so a first-day valuation in this range would signal a very different public-market view than a much lower or much higher listing. Traders are effectively weighing the company’s perceived growth, competitive position, and IPO pricing against the possibility that no offering happens in time.
The biggest price-moving developments are official, not speculative: a filing for an IPO, an announced pricing range, an exchange listing notice, and the final first-day closing price. Any signal that the deal is being delayed, downsized, or pulled would push attention toward the “No IPO by June 30, 2026” outcome instead. If an offering is announced, the indicated share count and price range will matter because they shape the implied market cap before the first close.
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24h Vol
$44.8K
Liquidity
$200.4K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The resolution source is the primary exchange’s official listing page, with another reliable source allowed only if the listing page does not show the needed figure. Readers should verify whether Anthropic has actually listed by the June 30, 2026 deadline and, if it has, what the official closing price was on the first trading day. The main ambiguity to watch for is an abbreviated session or delayed official close, because the rules say the market uses the official closing price of the shortened session or, if none is published, the next official close as the first trading day for resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $153.2K in 24h volume, and $28.7K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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