Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $521.8K in 24h volume, and $32K in liquidity.

Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.

This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.