
--
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2.1M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 20% and 24.9%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $30 in 24h volume, and $589.2 in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$30
Liquidity
$589.2
This market asks whether Argentina’s consumer prices will finish 2026 up between 20% and 24.9% from a year earlier, based on the official INDEC inflation report. It is worth watching because Argentina’s inflation path has been highly sensitive to policy, exchange-rate moves, and monthly price dynamics, and the answer will be pinned to one specific government data release rather than a broad estimate. The market currently prices that outcome as unlikely, which signals that traders expect the final 2026 figure to land outside that band.
The event here is the December 2026 year-over-year CPI reading for Argentina, reported by INDEC, the country’s National Institute of Statistics and Census. The market resolves on the official figure for “Variación % interanual Total nacional” in the monthly CPI release, and it uses the 12-month change ending in December 2026, with one-decimal-place precision. The “Yes” outcome means that the reported annual inflation rate is at least 20.0% and below 25.0% when INDEC publishes the December 2026 report, expected in January 2027.
Argentina has had volatile inflation in recent years, so even a seemingly narrow band like 20% to 24.9% can be uncertain over a one-year horizon. Readers may care because this number is a clean snapshot of whether inflation has been brought down into a lower range by the end of 2026, or whether it remains materially higher or lower than that band. The market is pricing a disagreement about where the year-over-year CPI will settle, especially after all of the monthly data between now and the December 2026 release are counted.
The biggest price moves will come from changes in Argentina’s monthly CPI trend, especially if successive INDEC reports show faster disinflation or a renewed pickup in prices. Policy decisions that affect the peso, regulated prices, utilities, public fares, or broader inflation expectations can also change the odds for this band because they influence how the year-over-year figure evolves. Any monthly reading that materially shifts the implied December 2026 trajectory can move the market quickly, even if the final number is still many months away.
Related markets

--
24h Vol
$2.1M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 4% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the INDEC CPI report for December 2026, specifically the national year-over-year inflation figure labeled “Variación % interanual Total nacional.” If the December report is delayed, the market rules say resolution will use the last available month once the next month’s data would normally be due, so the publication calendar matters as much as the number itself. Because INDEC reports inflation to one decimal place, readers should verify the exact reported percentage and the date of release, since that rounding determines whether the result falls inside or outside the 20% to 24.9% range.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 20% and 24.9%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $30 in 24h volume, and $589.2 in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
4%
No
96%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 10, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

+9.7%
24h Vol
$143K
Liquidity
$139.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
+0.1%
24h Vol
$153.1K
Liquidity
$251.8K
Spread
0%
7/29/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$89.3K
Liquidity
$241.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-2%
24h Vol
$228.9K
Liquidity
$476.9K
Spread
1%
6/30/2026
View market
-0.8%
24h Vol
$154K
Liquidity
$416K
Spread
0%
6/15/2026
View market