finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
7%
+1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$62.5K
Liquidity
$161.2K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Baidu have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $75 in 24h volume, and $6.2K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$75
Liquidity
$6.2K
This market asks a simple but specific question: will Baidu be the company behind the top-ranked coding model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of June 2026? Because the result depends on a public ranking table rather than a judge’s opinion, the company names and the exact check time matter a lot here.
The event is tied to the Coding tab on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at lmarena.ai, using the rank shown in the "Rank" column for "Text Arena | Coding" with style control off. On June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, the market will look at which company owns the model sitting in first place on that table; if the top spot is tied, the rules use Arena score, then any underlying granular score data, and finally company name order as the last tiebreaker.
Baidu matters here because it is one of the companies that can plausibly compete in coding-focused AI benchmarks, but the market is really about who ends up at the top of a live leaderboard at a fixed moment. That leaves room for churn from new model releases, leaderboard updates, and shifts in Arena scoring, so the disagreement is not about whether Baidu builds coding models, but whether one of its models will be ranked first at the resolution time.
Price can move if Baidu announces or releases a stronger coding model, if another company launches a model that overtakes the leaderboard, or if the Arena ranking changes after fresh evaluations. Updates to the Coding tab itself matter more than broad company news here, because the contract resolves only from that specific leaderboard view and not from general product claims or benchmark marketing.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
+1%
24h Vol
$62.5K
Liquidity
$161.2K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketBefore June 30, 2026, readers should verify the exact leaderboard page, the Coding tab, and that style control remains off, since those settings are part of the resolution rule. It is also important to watch the leaderboard at the specified check time, because the market depends on the table snapshot then, not on an average over the month. If the leaderboard is unavailable at that moment, the contract stays open until it comes back online, so any ambiguity in uptime or ranking ties could affect how the result is determined.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Baidu have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $75 in 24h volume, and $6.2K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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