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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$42.3K
Liquidity
$182.7K
Spread
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12/31/2026
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Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.4B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 30%, $1.3K in 24h volume, and $1.7K in liquidity.
Probability
30%
24h Volume
$1.3K
Liquidity
$1.7K
This market asks whether Bank of America will report second-quarter provision for credit losses above $1.4 billion in its official earnings materials. It is a narrow, accounting-based question, so the key issue is not overall profit but how much management sets aside for expected loan losses. That makes the market worth watching for anyone following BAC’s quarterly earnings release and the bank’s view of credit conditions.
The subject is Bank of America, ticker BAC, and one specific line item from its upcoming second fiscal quarter results: provision for credit losses. The market resolves Yes only if the number reported in the company’s official earnings materials is above $1.4 billion; if the figure is at or below that level, or if it is not reported in the covered materials, the market resolves No. The resolution source is Bank of America’s official earnings materials, including the press release, investor presentation, and regulatory filings, with webcast transcripts or recordings used only if needed.
Credit-loss provisions can move around from quarter to quarter depending on management’s expectations for borrower stress, charge-offs, and the broader economic outlook. For a large bank like Bank of America, a higher provision can signal more caution about consumer or corporate credit quality, while a lower figure can suggest steadier expectations. The disagreement in this market is about whether the bank’s reported reserve build for the quarter will land above the $1.4 billion threshold.
The price can move when Bank of America’s earnings date approaches and traders compare the $1.4 billion line to what the company has said in its prior results, if anything is available in public filings or earlier disclosures. Any official earnings release, investor deck, or filing that clearly states the provision figure could quickly settle the question if it lands above or below the threshold. If the company reports a range instead of a single number, the midpoint is used, so language that narrows or widens that range can also matter.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$42.3K
Liquidity
$182.7K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 30% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Watch for Bank of America’s official second-quarter earnings materials before the market’s deadline of August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with the market’s listed end date on July 14, 2026. The important detail is the exact reported wording for “provision for credit losses,” since the market uses the most numerically precise version found in official materials and ignores later revisions. If the line item is missing entirely from the company’s earnings materials, the rules say the market resolves No, so readers should verify that the figure is actually disclosed rather than assumed from another credit-related metric.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.4B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 30%, $1.3K in 24h volume, and $1.7K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
30%
No
70%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 14, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bank of America's provision for credit losses for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Bank of America's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 30%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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