economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $21.5K in 24h volume, and $2.1M in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$21.5K
Liquidity
$2.1M
This market asks whether Barack Obama will be the Democratic Party’s 2028 nominee for president and accept that nomination. It is a narrow question about a specific person, a specific party, and the party’s formal nomination outcome, so the main thing to watch is not campaign chatter but the official nomination process. The market runs through the 2028 election cycle and resolves only when the Democratic nominee is formally settled by the party.
The outcome is tied to Barack Obama, the former U.S. president, and the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. According to the rules, it resolves “Yes” only if Obama wins and accepts the Democratic nomination for president; otherwise it resolves “No.” The listed end date is 2028-11-07, which lines up with the U.S. presidential election calendar, but the key event is the party’s nomination decision, not the general election itself.
This market is about uncertainty in the Democratic Party’s 2028 nomination process and whether the named individual ends up being chosen by the party. Even with a familiar public figure like Obama, the nomination outcome depends on formal delegate selection, convention rules, and the final party decision, so readers may want to track it as the cycle develops. The market is pricing disagreement over whether this specific, highly unusual scenario could ever happen under the party’s official process.
The biggest price moves would come from official Democratic Party actions: delegate slates, convention rules, nomination endorsements, and any formal announcement about who is seeking or receiving the nomination. If party officials or convention materials make clear that another candidate has secured the nomination, that would push the market toward “No”; if the rules or official sources somehow point to Obama as the nominee, that would move it toward “Yes.” Because the resolution depends on official party sources, campaign speculation or media commentary matters less than the party’s own nomination records.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official Democratic Party sources that determine the nominee, including convention results, certified nomination records, and any formal acceptance of the nomination. The market rules also say that replacing the Democratic nominee before election day does not change resolution, so the key question is whether Barack Obama himself is the person who wins and accepts the nomination. If party documents are ambiguous, the settlement will hinge on the stated consensus of official Democratic Party sources, so those are the sources to verify before the deadline.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $21.5K in 24h volume, and $2.1M in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.8%
No
99.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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