
+1.4%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
24h Vol
$1.9M
Liquidity
$735.7K
Spread
0%
11/7/2028
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $10.2K in 24h volume, and $96.2K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$10.2K
Liquidity
$96.2K
This market asks a simple but highly specific question: will Benjamin Netanyahu be named as a winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize? Because the Nobel Peace Prize is decided by the Norwegian Nobel Committee and can include one winner, multiple joint winners, or no winner yet at all, the market is tied to the committee’s official announcement rather than speculation about politics alone.
The event in question is the announcement of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with Benjamin Netanyahu as the named person the market is tracking. Resolution depends on the first official statement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee, and the market stays open until the committee announces the prize or until the fallback deadline of March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, after which it resolves to "Other" if no announcement has been made. The description also sets special tie-break rules for shared prizes, including a specific precedence order for certain named individuals and alphabetical rules in some remaining cases.
Netanyahu is a prominent and controversial political figure, so there is real uncertainty about whether his name could ever appear in a Nobel Peace Prize announcement. The prize is often tied to diplomacy, conflict resolution, and international agreements, which makes any nomination or award involving major state leaders especially attention-grabbing. This market is pricing disagreement over both the Nobel Committee’s choice and whether a joint award or an unusual winner list could include him at all.
The biggest price moves would come from official Nobel-related signals, especially the committee’s announcement itself or any late-breaking indication of the prize’s direction. Because the market resolves only on the official winner list, public discussion, nominations, endorsements, or political developments matter mainly insofar as they change expectations about the committee’s final decision. If the prize is awarded jointly, the specific composition of the winner list could also matter under the market’s precedence rules.
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+1.4%
24h Vol
$1.9M
Liquidity
$735.7K
Spread
0%
11/7/2028
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s first official announcement of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, not commentary or media speculation. Readers should check whether Benjamin Netanyahu is explicitly named among the recipients, and if multiple winners are listed, whether the market’s special ordering rules apply. It is also important to note the fallback deadline: if no official announcement has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other."
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $10.2K in 24h volume, and $96.2K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.4%
No
99.7%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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