economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $2.6K in 24h volume, and $1.1M in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$2.6K
Liquidity
$1.1M
This market asks whether Ted Cruz will become the Republican Party’s official nominee for president in 2028. It is worth watching because the answer depends on the party’s nomination process, which can shift over time with campaigns, endorsements, and changes in the field of contenders.
The specific question is whether Ted Cruz will both win and accept the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president. The market resolves using a consensus of official Republican Party sources, and it is scheduled to stay open until Election Day on 2028-11-07. One important rule is that if the Republican nominee is replaced before Election Day, that replacement does not change this market’s outcome unless Cruz himself is the one who wins and accepts the nomination.
The nomination is not determined until the Republican Party completes its convention and other official nomination steps, so there is still room for uncertainty even around a prominent national figure. Ted Cruz is a well-known Republican senator and former presidential candidate, which makes him a recognizable possible nominee, but whether he actually secures the party’s backing in 2028 will depend on the primary field, delegate math, and official convention results. The market is pricing that disagreement between a remote but conceivable path to the nomination and the more likely outcome that someone else emerges.
Price can move if Cruz formally enters the race, builds endorsements, performs strongly or weakly in early primaries, or emerges as a serious convention contender. It can also move on official Republican Party actions such as delegate allocations, candidate withdrawals, convention rules, or any announcement that clarifies who the party will recognize as its nominee. Because the resolution source is official party material, late changes in endorsements or nomination procedures matter more here than informal speculation.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official Republican Party nomination process, especially convention results, formal acceptance of the nomination, and any official statements identifying the party’s nominee. The key point to verify is whether Cruz is the person who actually wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, since that is the exact resolution standard. If another candidate is substituted, or if there is ambiguity in party announcements, the market’s wording says official Republican Party sources will determine the outcome.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $2.6K in 24h volume, and $1.1M in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
1%
No
99.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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