culture
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
--
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$50.1K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $364.7K in 24h volume, and $5.9K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$364.7K
Liquidity
$5.9K
This market asks whether Bernard Arnault will be the richest person on December 31, 2026, based on the billionaire rankings used by Bloomberg. Arnault is the French luxury goods executive behind LVMH, and he has spent long stretches near the top of global wealth lists, so year-end leadership is a familiar point of comparison. The question matters because the top spot can shift with stock moves, asset valuations, and changes in competitors’ fortunes over the course of the year.
The outcome is tied to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at 5:30 PM ET on December 31, 2026. If Bloomberg has not published that date’s data by the end of December 31, 2026, the market falls back to Forbes’ Real-Time Billionaires list; if neither source has the relevant date by January 2, 2027, it resolves using the latest Bloomberg data point available. In practical terms, readers should focus on whether Bernard Arnault is the person sitting at the top of the relevant billionaire ranking at the specified year-end cutoff.
Arnault’s rank can change because billionaire lists are driven by rapidly moving company share prices, private asset valuations, currency effects, and the fortunes of other ultra-wealthy rivals. Even if someone is leading the list for much of the year, a late move in markets can change the order by December 31. The market is pricing disagreement over whether Arnault will still be #1 at that specific end-of-year snapshot or whether another billionaire will have overtaken him.
The price can move if Bernard Arnault’s net worth rises or falls relative to other top contenders on the Bloomberg list, especially through changes in LVMH-related valuations or broad luxury-sector sentiment. It can also move if rivals such as major technology, retail, or investment fortunes appreciate faster and close the gap before year-end. Because the market resolves on a single dated ranking, even a short-lived lead or a late December reversal can matter.
Related markets
--
24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$50.1K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, readers should check the exact source rules: Bloomberg Billionaires Index first, Forbes only as a backup, and the specified year-end timestamp in ET. The key ambiguity to watch is not simply who is richest in general, but who is listed at #1 on the relevant source on December 31, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET, or on the fallback date logic if Bloomberg’s data is delayed. If Bloomberg and Forbes differ, or if publication timing is delayed, the written resolution hierarchy will control the outcome.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $364.7K in 24h volume, and $5.9K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
0.8%
No
99.2%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
--
24h Vol
$59.5K
Liquidity
$37.2K
Spread
0%
6/12/2026
View market-14.4%
24h Vol
$152.7K
Liquidity
$26K
Spread
0%
6/6/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$272.2K
Liquidity
$1.9M
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$23.2K
Liquidity
$135.1K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-9.5%
24h Vol
$47.9K
Liquidity
$7.3K
Spread
1%
6/8/2026
View market