crypto
🔥 Hot⚡ Tight
63%
+16.5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
24h Vol
$303.9K
Liquidity
$27.4K
Spread
0%
7/1/2026
View marketCrypto
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 62%, $48K in 24h volume, and $79.3K in liquidity.
Probability
62%
24h Volume
$48K
Liquidity
$79.3K
This market asks whether Bitcoin’s Binance BTC/USDT price will print a one-minute candle low of $50,000 or below before the end of 2026. It is worth watching because the threshold is a round-number level that often attracts attention in crypto markets, and the contract is tied to a very specific exchange price feed rather than a broad average.
The event title is straightforward: will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Resolution is based only on Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candles, using the candle’s final "Low" price. The market resolves "Yes" if any 1-minute candle from November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET through December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a low at or below $50,000; otherwise it resolves "No."
Bitcoin’s price can move sharply, and a round level like $50,000 is a natural line traders and observers pay attention to. The uncertainty here is not about long-term adoption or fundamentals, but about whether Binance’s BTC/USDT market will ever trade down to that exact threshold during the stated window. Because the rule is tied to a single exchange and a specific candle low, the market is really pricing a very precise price-path question, not just a general view on Bitcoin.
The market can move on any development that changes expectations for Bitcoin’s path toward or away from $50,000, especially big swings in crypto sentiment, macro risk appetite, or liquidity conditions. Since resolution depends on Binance’s BTC/USDT one-minute lows, sharp intraday volatility matters more than closing prices: even a brief wick to the level would be enough to settle "Yes." Traders will also pay attention to whether the price action is concentrated on Binance itself, because that specific venue controls the outcome.
The current market price implies roughly a 62% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
+16.5%
24h Vol
$303.9K
Liquidity
$27.4K
Spread
0%
7/1/2026
View marketThe main thing to verify is the source of truth: Binance BTC/USDT on the 1-minute chart, with the candle’s final "Low" price deciding the market. Readers should watch the exact deadline window in ET and note that prices from other exchanges, other pairs, or spot averages do not count. The biggest ambiguity risk is assuming a broader market price matters here, when the contract instead uses a very narrow Binance-only rule and a single threshold of $50,000.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 62%, $48K in 24h volume, and $79.3K in liquidity.
Track live crypto prediction markets covering Bitcoin price targets, ETF approvals, regulation changes, and major blockchain events across the prediction market ecosystem.
Yes
61.5%
No
38.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 1, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 62%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
-0.7%
24h Vol
$280.1K
Liquidity
$94.8K
Spread
0%
6/6/2026
View market--
24h Vol
$173.6K
Liquidity
$7.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View market+8.5%
24h Vol
$130.1K
Liquidity
$79.2K
Spread
2%
1/1/2027
View market
-9%
24h Vol
$59K
Liquidity
$35.7K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View market+20.5%
24h Vol
$115.2K
Liquidity
$12.2K
Spread
1%
6/8/2026
View market