crypto
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-4.9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6?
24h Vol
$330.8K
Liquidity
$105K
Spread
0%
6/6/2026
View marketCrypto
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 24%, $590 in 24h volume, and $26.3K in liquidity.
Probability
24%
24h Volume
$590
Liquidity
$26.3K
This market asks a simple year-end question: among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500, which asset will post the strongest percentage gain in 2026? It is worth watching because it compares a major crypto asset against two classic benchmarks for inflation hedging and broad U.S. equity performance, so the result captures how markets treat risk, macro conditions, and store-of-value narratives over a full calendar year.
The contract resolves to the asset with the best total return in 2026, measured by comparing the start-of-year and end-of-year closing prices. For Bitcoin, the market uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closes at 12:00 AM ET on January 1, 2026 and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026; for Gold, it uses MarketWatch’s Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) close on the last trading day of 2025 and the last trading day of 2026. The description is truncated before the full S&P 500 rule, so readers should verify the exact source and close-date methodology for that leg before relying on the page.
Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 each represent a different kind of market leadership. Bitcoin has to outperform both a commodity often treated as a safe haven and a stock index that reflects the broader U.S. economy, so the market is really asking whether crypto can beat traditional assets over a full year. The uncertainty is not just about price direction, but about which asset class delivers the largest percentage move by the end of 2026.
News that changes expectations for Bitcoin’s 2026 return can move this market, especially exchange, custody, regulation, or ETF-related developments that affect access and demand. Gold legibility also matters because macro inflation expectations, real rates, and dollar strength can change how investors think about Gold versus Bitcoin. Because the contract is a relative-performance question, strong rallies in Gold or the S&P 500 can hurt the Bitcoin outcome even if Bitcoin rises on its own.
Related markets
-4.9%
24h Vol
$330.8K
Liquidity
$105K
Spread
0%
6/6/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 24% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, verify the exact source-of-truth rules for all three assets, especially the truncated S&P 500 section and how its 2026 close will be measured. The Bitcoin leg is tied to Binance BTC/USDT minute candles, while Gold uses MarketWatch GC00 historical quotes, so the timing and close definitions matter more than headlines or intraday moves. The market ends on December 31, 2026, and any ambiguity about the final close used for each asset could determine which performance number wins.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 24%, $590 in 24h volume, and $26.3K in liquidity.
Track live crypto prediction markets covering Bitcoin price targets, ETF approvals, regulation changes, and major blockchain events across the prediction market ecosystem.
Yes
23.5%
No
76.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles). The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch. The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00. The percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The resolution source for the S&P 500 will be Yahoo Finance, specifically the Close values published by Yahoo Finance for S&P 500 Index (^SPX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/. If two or more listed assets have exactly the same performance for 2026, this market will resolve according to the asset whose name, as listed in the title of this market, comes first alphabetically (e.g. if Bitcoin and Gold tie, this market will resolve to Bitcoin). Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied. If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used. If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 24%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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