economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
99%
-0.1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be at least 7.00%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $0.4 in 24h volume, and $1.8K in liquidity.
Probability
7%
24h Volume
$0.4
Liquidity
$1.8K
This market asks whether Brazil’s consumer inflation, as measured by the IBGE’s IPCA, will reach at least 7.00% over the 12 months ending in December 2026. It is worth watching because inflation in Brazil can swing with food, fuel, exchange-rate moves, and policy choices, and the final answer will be pinned to an official government statistic rather than a forecast or media estimate.
The event here is the December 2026 reading of Brazil’s Extended National Consumer Price Index, known as IPCA, published by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The market resolves on the 12-month cumulative rate reported in the IBGE monthly release for December 2026, currently scheduled for January 12, 2027. If that December figure is not available by the time the next month’s data is due, the market uses the last available month instead.
Readers are being asked to judge whether Brazil’s year-over-year inflation will end 2026 at or above 7.00%, a level that can matter for household purchasing power, interest-rate expectations, and broader macroeconomic confidence. The uncertainty comes from how inflation components evolve over the year and from whether price pressures ease enough to stay below the threshold or remain stubbornly elevated. The market is pricing a simple yes-or-no outcome based on the official IPCA figure, not on any alternate measure of inflation.
Price can move if the path of Brazil’s monthly IPCA readings starts pointing clearly above or below the 7.00% line, especially in the closing months of 2026. Because the resolution uses the official IBGE December report, each monthly release before then can matter, particularly if it shows persistent pressure in categories that often influence the annual rate. Any changes in IBGE methodology or reporting format would still be judged by the published relevant figure, so the key issue is the final reported 12-month rate, not market commentary around it.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 7% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The main source of truth is the IBGE press release for the December 2026 IPCA report, specifically the period-rate table and the row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months” with the rate column. Readers should verify the publication date, the exact 12-month percentage, and whether the release for December 2026 appears before the fallback rule would apply. If IBGE changes the report layout, the market rules say the published relevant figure still counts, so the important thing is the official number, not the presentation format.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be at least 7.00%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 7%, $0.4 in 24h volume, and $1.8K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
6.8%
No
93.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 12, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 7%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
+0.3%
24h Vol
$609.9K
Liquidity
$565.5K
Spread
0%
6/15/2026
View market--
24h Vol
$484.1K
Liquidity
$477.6K
Spread
1%
6/30/2026
View market-1%
24h Vol
$138.3K
Liquidity
$227.9K
Spread
1%
7/29/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$42.5K
Liquidity
$240.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-2%
24h Vol
$76.5K
Liquidity
$123.3K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market