economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
99%
-0.1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.00% and 3.49%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $4.4K in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$4.4K
Liquidity
$3.6K
This market asks whether Brazil’s 12-month inflation rate, measured by the IBGE’s IPCA, will end 2026 inside a narrow band: 3.00% to 3.49%. That range matters because it sits close to the kind of annual inflation outcome policymakers, businesses, and households watch when judging price stability in Brazil.
The event is tied to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics’ monthly IPCA release for December 2026, which is scheduled for January 12, 2027. The relevant figure is the “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months” rate in the IPCA period-rate table, and the market resolves based on that official number for the 12-month period ending December 2026. In plain English, the question is whether Brazil’s year-over-year consumer inflation for that endpoint lands between 3.00% and 3.49%, inclusive of the market’s stated range as interpreted by the resolution source.
This market is centered on uncertainty about where Brazil’s inflation will stand by the end of 2026, not on a single monthly print. Inflation can drift within a year as food, fuel, services, exchange rates, and policy conditions change, so the final 12-month reading may end up inside or outside the target band depending on how those forces evolve. The disagreement being priced is whether the official IBGE year-over-year IPCA figure will finish in that specific mid-3% corridor rather than lower, higher, or outside the band entirely.
The price can move if recent IPCA releases show inflation trending toward or away from the 3% to 3.49% window, especially in the months leading up to the December 2026 report. Changes in administered prices, food inflation, transport costs, and services inflation are especially relevant because they can shift the cumulative 12-month rate without needing a dramatic one-month surprise. Revisions or reporting-format changes are not supposed to change the resolution, but any official IBGE publication that affects the December 2026 cumulative 12-month figure would matter for the market.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official IBGE press release for the December 2026 IPCA, since that is the source of truth for resolution. The key line is the Period-Rate table, specifically the row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months” and the “Rate” column for the December 2026 report. If the December data are not published by the next month’s scheduled release date, the market says it will use the last available month, so the publication calendar and the exact final figure are the main things to verify.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.00% and 3.49%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $4.4K in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
1.2%
No
98.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 12, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
0%
24h Vol
$659.7K
Liquidity
$539.7K
Spread
0%
6/15/2026
View market-3%
24h Vol
$610.8K
Liquidity
$454.3K
Spread
1%
6/30/2026
View market-1%
24h Vol
$140.6K
Liquidity
$228.1K
Spread
1%
7/29/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$41.7K
Liquidity
$236K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-1.9%
24h Vol
$76.2K
Liquidity
$120.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market