economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
99%
-0.1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $0.4 in 24h volume, and $2.5K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$0.4
Liquidity
$2.5K
This market asks whether Brazil’s inflation, measured by the official IPCA index, will finish 2026 in a fairly narrow band between 4.00% and 4.49%. It is worth watching because even small shifts in Brazil’s price trend can change whether the annual figure lands inside or outside that window by year-end. The answer will depend on the December 2026 IBGE release, not on guesses about any single month in isolation.
The event here is the 12-month change in Brazil’s Extended National Consumer Price Index, known as IPCA, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, or IBGE. The market resolves on the December 2026 IPCA report, scheduled for release on January 12, 2027, using the figure in the monthly IBGE press release for the row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months” and the “Rate” column. If IBGE changes the layout, the published equivalent figure still counts, and if the December data are not available by the next scheduled release, the market falls back to the last available month.
This market is about a specific inflation target band, so the key uncertainty is whether Brazil’s annual price growth will end 2026 just above 4%, inside the 4.00% to 4.49% range, or outside it. That matters because annual inflation is often watched as a snapshot of the broader price environment and can affect how people interpret the economy heading into the next year. The disagreement the market is pricing is not about whether inflation exists, but about where the official year-over-year IBGE number will land after 12 months of monthly changes.
The market can move when new IBGE monthly IPCA releases either push the 12-month rate closer to the band or away from it. A string of hotter-than-expected monthly readings would make the upper end of the range harder to reach if the annual figure rises above 4.49%, while softer readings would make the band less likely if inflation cools below 4.00%. Because the resolution comes from the December 2026 report, late-year data will matter more than earlier months in determining the final outcome.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official IBGE monthly IPCA releases, especially the December 2026 press release that is scheduled for January 12, 2027. The source of truth is the IBGE report itself, specifically the IPCA figure in the “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months” row, and the market rules say the published equivalent should count even if the report format changes. The main ambiguity to check is whether the December data are released on time; if not, the market uses the last available month under the stated fallback rule.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $0.4 in 24h volume, and $2.5K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
2%
No
98%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 12, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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