economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
99%
-0.1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 13%, $0.4 in 24h volume, and $2.2K in liquidity.
Probability
13%
24h Volume
$0.4
Liquidity
$2.2K
This market asks whether Brazil’s consumer-price inflation, measured over the 12 months ending in December 2026, will land between 4.50% and 4.99% according to IBGE’s IPCA release. It is a clean calendar-based question tied to an official statistics publication, so the main thing to watch is the final December 2026 reading when IBGE publishes it in January 2027.
The event is Brazil’s annual inflation rate for the year ending December 2026, not a guess about any one month by itself. The relevant figure is the IPCA, IBGE’s Extended National Consumer Price Index, taken from the monthly report for December 2026 and checked in the row for the cumulative 12-month rate. The market resolves on the official IBGE press release scheduled for January 12, 2027, or, if that specific month is not released by the next scheduled publication date, the most recent available month.
Brazil’s inflation rate can move enough over time that a narrow band like 4.50% to 4.99% is uncertain well in advance, especially because monthly price data, energy costs, food prices, exchange-rate effects, and policy conditions can shift the final reading. Readers may care because the IPCA is the headline inflation benchmark in Brazil and is closely watched by policymakers, businesses, and households. The market is effectively pricing whether the full-year reading for December 2026 lands inside that specific half-point window or ends up below or above it.
The market should move when new IBGE monthly IPCA releases show inflation running hotter or cooler than expected, especially in the second half of 2026 as the December cumulative figure comes into view. Big surprises in food, transport, housing, or regulated prices can quickly change whether the 12-month rate looks likely to finish inside 4.50%–4.99%. Because this is a year-end annual rate, every monthly report from mid-2026 onward matters more as the December endpoint gets closer.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 13% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the IBGE December 2026 IPCA news release, specifically the Period-Rate table and the column labeled "Rate" on the row "Cumulative in the year / 12 Months." Readers should verify the exact percentage reported there, since that figure determines the outcome even if the website format changes. The deadline for the market is the January 12, 2027 release date shown here, but the rules also say that if December data are not published by the next scheduled release, the market falls back to the last available month. The current market is thinly traded, with limited volume and a noticeable spread, so late moves may reflect small orders as much as new information.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 13%, $0.4 in 24h volume, and $2.2K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
12.6%
No
87.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 12, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 13%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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