economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
99%
-0.1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 17%, $696.8 in 24h volume, and $2.8K in liquidity.
Probability
17%
24h Volume
$696.8
Liquidity
$2.8K
This market asks whether Brazil’s consumer inflation, measured over the 12 months ending December 2026, will land inside a fairly narrow band: 5.00% to 5.49%. The answer will be determined by IBGE’s official IPCA release for December 2026, so the key question is not a forecast headline or a private estimate, but the published year-over-year inflation figure in Brazil’s main consumer price index.
The event is tied to Brazil’s Extended National Consumer Price Index, or IPCA, which is the country’s most closely watched official inflation measure. Resolution depends on the IBGE monthly report for December 2026, expected on January 12, 2027, and the market will use the figure shown in the “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months” row of the Period-Rate table. If the December 2026 data is not published by the scheduled time for the next month’s release, the market falls back to the last available month, so the exact publication sequence matters.
Brazilian inflation can move enough over a year that a 0.49-point band is meaningful, especially when policymakers, businesses, and households are watching whether price growth stays near or moves away from the government’s broader inflation framework. The market is effectively pricing disagreement over whether the cumulative IPCA will end 2026 in the mid-5% range, above it, or below it. Because the outcome is based on one official statistic rather than a narrative judgment, even modest changes in monthly price trends can shift which side of the band is more plausible.
New IBGE monthly IPCA readings are the most direct driver, especially if food, transport, housing, or administered prices come in materially hotter or cooler than expected. Central bank policy, fuel-price changes, exchange-rate swings, and seasonal effects can all matter only insofar as they show up in the official CPI path during 2026. Since the market resolves on the year-over-year December figure, a few strong or weak late-2026 prints can matter more than early-year noise.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 17% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important source is the IBGE press release for December 2026, not commentary or market estimates. Readers should verify the exact value in the IPCA monthly report, the row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months,” and whether the published format still clearly identifies the annual rate. The deadline here is the December 2026 release, currently scheduled for January 12, 2027, and the fallback rule means any delay in publication could shift resolution to the latest available month instead.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 17%, $696.8 in 24h volume, and $2.8K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
17.3%
No
82.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 12, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 17%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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