economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
99%
-0.1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 28%, $5.9K in 24h volume, and $2.9K in liquidity.
Probability
28%
24h Volume
$5.9K
Liquidity
$2.9K
This market asks a straightforward question about Brazilian inflation: will the official 12-month change in the IPCA finish 2026 inside the 5.50% to 5.99% range? Because it resolves from IBGE’s monthly consumer-price report, it is tied to a specific government statistic rather than a private estimate or media narrative.
The event being tracked is Brazil’s annual inflation rate for the 12 months ending December 2026, measured by the Extended National Consumer Price Index, or IPCA. The market resolves using the IBGE monthly report for December 2026, which is currently scheduled for release on January 12, 2027. To settle the market, the relevant figure must fall in the row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months” under the Period-Rate table, with the answer depending on whether that published rate is between 5.50% and 5.99% inclusive.
This market is focused on a narrow inflation band, so the real question is whether Brazil’s price growth ends 2026 close enough to that interval to count as a match. Readers care because the IPCA is Brazil’s main headline inflation measure and is closely watched for what it says about household costs, monetary conditions, and policy credibility. The disagreement reflected here is not just about whether inflation is high or low, but whether the year-end figure lands inside one specific slice of the official range.
Price can move as traders reassess where the December 2026 IPCA reading is likely to land, especially after each monthly IBGE release updates the 12-month cumulative rate. A sequence of hotter-than-expected monthly prints, or a single sharp cooling in prices, could push the expected final number out of the 5.50% to 5.99% corridor. Because the contract resolves from the December 2026 report, the final months of 2026 will matter most, but earlier inflation trends can still shape expectations well before then.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 28% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the official IBGE IPCA news release for December 2026, not a news summary or market commentary. Readers should verify the exact figure in the December 2026 press release, check that it appears in the “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months” row, and confirm the report date because this market is scheduled to resolve when that release is published on January 12, 2027. If December 2026 data is not released by the time the next month’s data would normally be scheduled, the market rules say it will use the last available month instead, so the publication calendar matters if there is any delay.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 28%, $5.9K in 24h volume, and $2.9K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
28%
No
72.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 12, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 28%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
0%
24h Vol
$659.7K
Liquidity
$539.7K
Spread
0%
6/15/2026
View market-3%
24h Vol
$610.8K
Liquidity
$454.3K
Spread
1%
6/30/2026
View market-1%
24h Vol
$140.6K
Liquidity
$228.1K
Spread
1%
7/29/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$41.7K
Liquidity
$236K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-1.9%
24h Vol
$76.2K
Liquidity
$120.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market