economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
99%
-0.1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 26%, $0.4 in 24h volume, and $2.7K in liquidity.
Probability
26%
24h Volume
$0.4
Liquidity
$2.7K
This market asks whether Brazil’s consumer inflation, as measured by the IBGE’s IPCA, will finish 2026 in a fairly narrow band: between 6.00% and 6.49% over the prior 12 months. It is worth watching because the answer depends on the official monthly price data that Brazilian statisticians publish over the course of 2026, not on a single headline reading.
The event here is the IBGE’s December 2026 IPCA release, scheduled for January 12, 2027. The market resolves to the reported 12-month change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index, and the “Yes” outcome pays if that annual rate lands from 6.00% up to 6.49% in the December 2026 report. The IBGE is Brazil’s official statistics agency, so this is a question about the country’s authoritative inflation measure rather than a private estimate or a market-based gauge.
Inflation can drift meaningfully over a year, and a narrow range like this can be difficult to pin down well in advance. Readers may care because the IPCA is the standard reference for how fast prices are rising in Brazil, and small changes in monthly readings can push the 12-month total above or below the band. The market is pricing disagreement about whether late-2026 price dynamics will place the annual figure inside this specific interval or just outside it.
Monthly IBGE IPCA releases through 2026 are the main drivers, especially any surprise in food, energy, transport, or services inflation that changes the year-over-year path. Policy decisions, exchange-rate swings, and broader commodity-price moves can matter because they often feed into consumer prices with a lag, which is why traders will keep an eye on each new monthly report rather than only the final December print. Near the resolution date, revisions or format changes in the IBGE tables could also matter, although the market rules say a published relevant figure will still count even if the reporting layout changes.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 26% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the IBGE monthly IPCA press release for December 2026, specifically the table showing the “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months” rate. If December 2026 data were somehow not released by the time January 2027’s report is due, the market says it would fall back to the last available month, so readers should verify the actual publication date and the exact row used. Because the band is tight, the important question is not just whether inflation is high or low, but whether the official 12-month figure ends up at 5.99%, inside 6.00%–6.49%, or 6.50% and above.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 26%, $0.4 in 24h volume, and $2.7K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
26.2%
No
73.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 12, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 26%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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