economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
99%
-0.1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.50% and 6.99%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 24%, $0.4 in 24h volume, and $2.8K in liquidity.
Probability
24%
24h Volume
$0.4
Liquidity
$2.8K
This market asks whether Brazil’s annual inflation, measured by the official IPCA consumer price index, will land between 6.50% and 6.99% for the 12 months ending in December 2026. It is worth watching because it ties directly to Brazil’s headline inflation reading from IBGE, the country’s main statistical agency, and that figure is a standard reference point for how fast prices are rising.
The event is specifically the December 2026 IPCA release from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), scheduled for January 12, 2027. The question is not whether inflation rises or falls in general, but whether the “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months” rate in the IBGE monthly release falls inside the 6.50% to 6.99% range. If the official release does not appear on schedule, the market says it will use the last available month’s data.
Brazil’s annual inflation rate can move meaningfully over time because food, energy, currency pressure, and broader demand conditions all affect the IPCA. Readers may care because this is the same official series policymakers, businesses, and households use to judge price stability, and the market is pricing a narrow band rather than a simple rise-or-fall outcome. The uncertainty is about where the year-end reading will ultimately settle, not whether inflation data will matter.
A run of monthly IBGE IPCA prints above or below expectations would be the most direct driver, especially if several months in a row shift the 12-month cumulative rate toward or away from the target band. Any change in the inflation path late in 2026 would matter more than early-year noise, because this market resolves on the December 2026 12-month figure. The main live signal to watch is the sequence of official IBGE releases, since the market settles on the published number rather than on forecasts or commentary.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.2M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 24% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the IBGE monthly IPCA press release for December 2026, specifically the Period-Rate table and the row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months.” Readers should verify that the published rate is the final official figure in the release format, even if the presentation changes, because the rules say formatting changes do not disqualify the relevant number. The deadline in the market rules points to the January 12, 2027 release date, or to the most recent available month if that December report is delayed.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.50% and 6.99%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 24%, $0.4 in 24h volume, and $2.8K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
23.7%
No
76.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 12, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 24%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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