economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
99%
-0.1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be less than 3.00%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $3.6 in 24h volume, and $3.1K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$3.6
Liquidity
$3.1K
This market asks whether Brazil’s consumer price inflation, as measured by the IBGE’s IPCA, will end 2026 below 3.00% on a 12-month basis. It is worth watching because the result will not depend on a single monthly reading alone, but on the full year-over-year path of prices through December 2026 and the official IBGE release in January 2027.
The event is tied to Brazil’s Extended National Consumer Price Index, known as IPCA, which is the country’s main official inflation measure. Resolution will use the IBGE’s monthly report for December 2026, specifically the “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months” rate for that month; the market ends when that December 2026 report is published, currently scheduled for January 12, 2027. The outcome is simply whether that reported 12-month change is less than 3.00% or not.
There is genuine uncertainty because annual inflation can shift with food prices, energy, services, exchange-rate effects, and policy changes over the course of a full year. A 3.00% threshold is a meaningful line because it is close to the kind of target range and policy debate that often matters for Brazil’s macroeconomic outlook, so traders are watching whether the official year-end reading lands below it. The market is currently priced very heavily toward “No,” which suggests participants see sub-3% inflation as an unlikely outcome, but the final answer will be determined only by the IBGE figure.
Monthly IPCA releases through 2026 will matter because each new reading changes the rolling 12-month total that this market uses. A sequence of stronger-than-expected price increases, especially in food, services, fuel, or administered prices, would tend to push the year-over-year rate farther from 3.00%, while a softer inflation run would make the “Yes” case more plausible. The biggest single trigger will be the December 2026 IBGE report itself, since that is the exact release used for resolution.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official IBGE IPCA press release for December 2026 and make sure they are looking at the “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months” figure in the Period-Rate table. The market rules say the December 2026 report, expected on January 12, 2027, is the source of truth, and if that month’s data is not released by the next scheduled publication date, the market falls back to the most recent available month. Because IBGE formatting can change, the key verification is the published IPCA rate itself, not the layout of the report.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be less than 3.00%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $3.6 in 24h volume, and $3.1K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 12, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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