economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $147.5K in 24h volume, and $173.8K in liquidity.
Probability
5%
24h Volume
$147.5K
Liquidity
$173.8K
This market asks whether Camilo Santana will win Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. It is tied to one of the country’s most important political contests, with the outcome determined by the official election result rather than campaign chatter or media speculation.
The event is the Brazilian presidential election scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a possible second round included in the final result. The market resolves on the candidate named in the question: Camilo Santana. If the winner is not known by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market is set to resolve to “Other,” and if there is any ambiguity, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is the source of truth.
Camilo Santana is a prominent Brazilian political figure, and a presidential bid raises obvious uncertainty because national elections depend on party strategy, coalition building, candidacy decisions, and voter preferences that can change over time. Readers may care because the market is not asking who will lead the country in a generic sense, but whether this specific named politician will be the official winner of the 2026 race. The disagreement priced here is about the likelihood that Santana is both a candidate and the eventual certified winner.
The price can move if Camilo Santana officially enters or exits the race, if his party or allies signal a strong or weak path to nomination, or if election rules and coalition dynamics make his candidacy more or less plausible. In Brazil, the prospect of a second-round runoff matters because a first-round lead does not necessarily decide the presidency. Any official statements, candidacy confirmations, major endorsements, or TSE-certified developments that clarify the field could affect how this market is priced.
The current market price implies roughly a 5% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketBefore resolution, the key things to verify are the official TSE results, whether the election required a second round, and whether the winner is clearly identified in the final certified outcome. The market does not rely on unofficial claims if there is ambiguity; it falls back on the Brazilian government’s official election reporting. Readers should also note the long stop date in June 2027, which is only relevant if the election outcome remains unresolved for some reason.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $147.5K in 24h volume, and $173.8K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
4.8%
No
95.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 4, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 5%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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