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Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$49.9K
Liquidity
$272.3K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 34%, $4.6K in 24h volume, and $754.4 in liquidity.
Probability
34%
24h Volume
$4.6K
Liquidity
$754.4
This market asks whether Canva’s private valuation will touch at least $42.5 billion at any point before June 30, 2026, based on Nasdaq Private Market’s reported NPM Price. Canva is a closely watched private software company, so its secondary-market valuation can matter as a rough signal of investor sentiment ahead of any future public listing or liquidity event. Because the market is keyed to an official published price series, the main question is not just where Canva stands on June 30, but whether it ever reaches the threshold during the measurement window.
The event is tied to Canva’s private-market valuation as reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC. It resolves “Yes” if any NPM Price published for a date from market creation through June 30, 2026 is at or above $42.5 billion; otherwise it resolves “No.” The end date shown on the page is July 1, 2026, which reflects the resolution timing, while the underlying measurement window ends the day before.
Canva is a well-known private company, and its valuation can move as employees, early investors, and secondary buyers trade shares in private markets. That creates uncertainty about whether the company’s reported valuation will cross a specific threshold within the stated period. The market is essentially pricing disagreement over whether Canva’s published private-market value can revisit or exceed that level before the deadline.
The biggest drivers here are new NPM Price prints, since the contract settles on whether the published valuation reaches the $42.5 billion threshold. If Canva eventually files for an IPO or completes a direct listing, the market also says the official offer price and subsequent public market capitalization can count toward the resolution. Any change in NPM’s coverage status, publication timing, or the appearance of qualifying public-market data could therefore matter.
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24h Vol
$49.9K
Liquidity
$272.3K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 34% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official NPM Price publications, because those are the primary source of truth for this market. The rules also matter if NPM stops publishing before the end of the window, since the contract can still resolve using the data available up to that point, and possibly public-market data if Canva lists before June 30, 2026. The main ambiguity to verify is whether the reported NPM Price is available for each relevant trading day in time for the July 1–July 4 backup resolution period.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 34%, $4.6K in 24h volume, and $754.4 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
33.5%
No
66.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canva's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 34%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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