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Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$49.6K
Liquidity
$273.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 23%, $64.1 in 24h volume, and $1K in liquidity.
Probability
23%
24h Volume
$64.1
Liquidity
$1K
This market is asking whether Canva’s private-market valuation will reach at least $45 billion at any point before June 30, 2026. Canva is a closely watched design software company, so its reported private valuation can matter as a signal of how investors are pricing late-stage tech businesses. The key date matters because the market only counts NPM valuation data within the defined window, not later updates.
The question is tied to Canva’s NPM Price, the private-market valuation reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC. It resolves to Yes if any published NPM valuation for Canva from market creation through June 30, 2026, is at or above $45 billion; otherwise it resolves to No. The market also has specific fallback rules if NPM stops publishing, if all business-day data is delayed, or if Canva goes public before the deadline, in which case official IPO or direct-listing pricing and public market capitalization can also count.
Canva’s valuation can move around as private-market buyers and sellers reassess growth expectations, dilution, and broader tech sentiment. Readers may care because $45 billion is a clear threshold that turns a noisy stream of private pricing into a simple yes-or-no outcome. The disagreement behind the market is whether Canva’s reported private value will touch that level before the deadline, especially given that the resolution uses a specific reporting source rather than general press commentary.
The biggest price movers are official NPM valuation prints for Canva, since those are the primary resolution source. An IPO or direct listing before the deadline would also matter because the rules say the official offer price and subsequent public market capitalization can be used. Any change in the frequency or continuity of NPM reporting is important too, because the market has explicit fallback language if published data stops or lags.
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24h Vol
$49.6K
Liquidity
$273.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 23% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The main thing to verify is whether NPM publishes a Canva valuation at or above $45 billion on any qualifying business date before June 30, 2026. Readers should also watch the July 1 and July 4 timing rules, since delayed publication can keep the market open briefly while the available data catches up. If Canva were to list publicly, the exact IPO or direct-listing price would become part of the resolution process, so the source of truth is the market rule set and the NPM/public market data it names.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 23%, $64.1 in 24h volume, and $1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
22.5%
No
77.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canva's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 23%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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