economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $20 in 24h volume, and $117.9K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$20
Liquidity
$117.9K
This market asks whether Carlos Espá will win Peru’s 2026 presidential election. It is tied to a major national vote scheduled for April 12, 2026, with a possible runoff if no candidate wins outright, so the answer may not be known immediately on election day.
The question is simple: will Carlos Espá be the candidate officially recognized as the winner of Peru’s next presidential election? The market includes the full election result, including any second round, and it resolves to the listed winner based on official Peruvian electoral authorities if there is any dispute or ambiguity. If the result is still not definitive by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other.”
Peru’s presidential contests can become uncertain because the first round may not produce a final winner, making second-round dynamics important. A market like this is essentially pricing whether Espá becomes the last candidate standing after all official votes, runoff rules, and certification are completed. The uncertainty is not just about popularity; it is about whether the election mechanics, coalition shifts, and official count end with Espá ahead of the field.
Price can move if Carlos Espá formally enters the race, withdraws, is disqualified, or emerges as a serious contender in official campaign developments. Endorsements, alliances ahead of a runoff, and the way other leading candidates perform in the first round would also matter, because this market counts the whole election, not just the initial vote. Any official updates from Peru’s electoral institutions, especially announcements from ONPE and JNE, are likely to be the most important signals.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketReaders should watch the official election calendar, whether the contest goes to a second round, and the certified results published by Peru’s electoral authorities. The market’s rule is specific: if there is ambiguity, the official results from ONPE and JNE control, not media speculation or unofficial counts. It is also important to check the deadline, since if the outcome is not definitively known by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other.”
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $20 in 24h volume, and $117.9K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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