economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $119.8K in 24h volume, and $1.2M in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$119.8K
Liquidity
$1.2M
This market asks whether Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior, better known as Ratinho Júnior, will be elected president of Brazil in 2026. It is worth watching because Brazil’s presidential race can go to a runoff, so the winner may not be known on the first voting day even after ballots are cast.
The event is the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, scheduled for October 4, 2026, with the possibility of a second round if no candidate clears the first-round threshold. The question is specifically whether Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior will be the candidate who ultimately wins the presidency, not whether he runs, polls well, or reaches a runoff. If the race is still unresolved by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market is set to resolve to "Other."
Brazil’s election rules, multi-round structure, and the possibility of new alliances make the outcome uncertain long before Election Day. Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior is a nationally known Brazilian politician and state-level executive, but turning that profile into a presidential win depends on party support, campaign dynamics, and how a runoff unfolds. The market is pricing a sharp disagreement between a narrow path to victory and the possibility that he never emerges as the final winner.
Official announcements that confirm or deny his candidacy, ticket, or party backing would be the clearest catalysts. Polling shifts, coalition talks, and signals from other major Brazilian political figures could also change how plausible a first-round or runoff victory looks. Because the market resolves to the official winner, any credible indication from the election authorities or consensus reporting about the final result would matter most near Election Day and during a runoff.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketReaders should track the official election calendar, especially whether the contest goes to a second round and when the Superior Electoral Court, or TSE, certifies the result. The market rules say resolution follows the listed candidate who wins the election, with the official TSE result controlling if there is any ambiguity. It is also important to verify that the candidate named in the market is the same person appearing on the ballot, since Brazilian candidates can be better known by nicknames or shortened public names.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $119.8K in 24h volume, and $1.2M in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 4, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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