world
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
7%
+0.4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$625.1K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketWorld
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 16%, $4K in 24h volume, and $134.7K in liquidity.
Probability
16%
24h Volume
$4K
Liquidity
$134.7K
This market asks whether China will begin a military offensive aimed at taking control of any part of Taiwan before the end of 2027. It is centered on one of the most consequential security questions in East Asia, because any move against Taiwan would have major implications for regional stability, U.S.-China relations, and global trade. The deadline matters here: the market only resolves on actions that occur by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, so timing and official confirmation are just as important as the nature of the event.
The question is whether China will “commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion” of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before the stated cutoff. The wording is broader than a full-scale occupation: it can resolve Yes if the offensive is aimed at any inhabited part of Taiwan’s administered territory, including inhabited offshore islands, but not uninhabited islands. Resolution is tied to official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent member of the UN Security Council, though a consensus of credible reporting can also be used. That means the market is not about rhetoric, drills, or tension alone; it is about a concrete initiation of military action with an intent to seize territory.
Taiwan’s status is one of the most sensitive flashpoints in international politics, and China has long claimed the island as part of its territory while Taiwan maintains its own government, military, and public institutions. Because the dispute has diplomatic, military, and legal dimensions, readers can reasonably disagree about how likely a direct attack is, especially over a multi-year horizon. The market is pricing disagreement over whether deterrence, diplomacy, and military balance will hold through 2027, or whether the situation could escalate into open force. The long deadline also leaves room for many possible paths: pressure without invasion, a limited military action, or a broader conflict that satisfies the resolution standard.
Related markets
+0.4%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$625.1K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketOfficial statements from Beijing or Taipei, especially language that signals a shift from deterrence or coercion to an actual offensive, would matter most. Likewise, announcements from the United Nations or permanent Security Council members, or a broad and consistent set of credible reports describing the start of a military operation, could change how the market interprets the risk. Because the rule is about commencing an offensive intended to establish control, developments near Taiwan’s inhabited islands, blockade-like actions, amphibious mobilization, or strikes tied to territorial seizure would be more relevant than routine military exercises. By contrast, ordinary saber-rattling, exercises, or political speeches may move sentiment briefly but would not by themselves satisfy the resolution criteria.
The current market price implies roughly a 16% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the exact wording of the market rules, especially the phrase “commences a military offensive” and the requirement that the offensive be intended to establish control over Taiwanese territory. The resolution source matters too: official confirmation is strongest, but the market also allows a consensus of credible reporting, so ambiguity could arise if events are disputed or partially reported. The deadline is December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, so any event after that point does not count. It is also worth checking whether reports concern inhabited or uninhabited islands, since the rules explicitly exclude uninhabited islands from qualifying territory.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 16%, $4K in 24h volume, and $134.7K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
15.5%
No
84.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 16%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
+0.1%
24h Vol
$75.7K
Liquidity
$207.1K
Spread
0%
4/30/2027
View market+0.5%
24h Vol
$439.1K
Liquidity
$109.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-0.1%
24h Vol
$337.9K
Liquidity
$34.9K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-0.5%
24h Vol
$212.1K
Liquidity
$60.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-0.4%
24h Vol
$282.1K
Liquidity
$780.6K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market